Sailfish City - Stuart Florida Community Site

The Martin County

  Defender

The e-newsletter for aware citizens – No. 83

TIMING IS EVERYTHING

The home resale price roller coaster

The home sales price bubble inflated over time; then it deflated dramatically, but not instantly. The cycle took several years. Unfortunately, the supposed experts – bankers, developers, real estate brokers and political officials – either did not track the handwriting on the wall for the resale market or did not understand it. They may have been deluding themselves, too busy living on unrealistic expectations of price appreciation, raking in dollars and votes. And buyers seemed blindly optimistic that prices would keep rising forever, their faith in authority convincing them to forget caveat emptor.

To learn the timeline of the rise and fall of home prices in Martin County, we examined a substantial segment of house resales during the last months of 2008. Both higher and lower priced homes were included, though most were mid-range. We broke down 168 randomly selected resales by year of original acquisition. Then we analyzed the average percent increase or decrease of the price when the same houses were resold recently.

The general conclusion of this DEFENDER study is interesting in the same sense that lottery winners and train wrecks are. On average, the overwhelming majority of those who bought a house prior to 2003 and resold it in 2008 made a profit – usually a large profit. Almost all who originally bought in 2004 or later and subsequently resold in 2008 lost money – often a great deal of money. 2003 was the tipping point year.

For houses purchased prior to 2000, resale prices in 2008 were up 125%.

For houses purchased in 2000, resale prices in 2008 were up 52%.

For houses purchased in 2001, resale prices in 2008 were up 39%.

For houses purchased in 2002, resale prices in 2008 were up 30%.

For houses purchased in 2003, resale prices in 2008 were down 1%.

For houses purchased in 2004, resale prices in 2008 were down 22%.

For houses purchased in 2005, resale prices in 2008 were down 31%.

For houses purchased in 2006, resale prices in 2008 were down 40%.

For houses purchased in 2007, resale prices in 2008 were down 37%.

These specific percentages and annual pattern of dramatic gains and losses have not been previously recognized, at least not publicly.

In retrospect, it is apparent that although Florida’s overall economy in 2005 was at a peak (gross domestic product was highest of all states), the growth engine was already starting to sputter. House-of-cards prosperity masked the impending collapse. Florida now ranks 47^th in GDP.

LOOKING AHEAD

State economists have predicted that the current recession will last through 2009, with slow growth starting in 2010. This suggests that we are probably near the bottom now, but it is all speculative as to when the cyclic upturn will kick in. Martin County has had moderate long-term population and development growth. This should make us less vulnerable than some boomtown counties. However, we are not insulated from the current state and local pattern of no population growth, budget shortfalls, rising unemployment, and foreclosures.

Based on all of the above, what guideline should today’s prospective home buyers and sellers consider? There are what appear to be great home bargains for financially solid potential buyers willing to shop hard. However, for new buyers who do not expect to keep their homes more than two or three years, there still is some risk of further loss in market value. For those who expect to keep their homes for four or more years, the likelihood is that economic recovery will once again put such purchases on the path of appreciation. Houses may then become satisfactory investments, but probably less so than in the past decade.

If we are able to learn from experience, perhaps the next cycle will still perform like a roller coaster - but with a less frightening ride.

Highlights of 12/16/08 Commission meeting

LOOK FOR HIGHER TAXES IN 2009: County staff expects property assessments to drop more than 9% in 2009, necessitating a tax rate increase to make up for the reduced ad valorem tax collections.

A ROAD JOB WELL DONE: The plan to solve the terrible traffic situation at Monterey & Kanner by adding lanes (first reported on 6/19/08 in DEFENDER No. 59) has been completed on time and under budget. It’s a major safety and convenience improvement. Kudos to county staff.

WASTING OUR TAX MONEY: County continues to spend money to develop a new park, when the Parks & Rec Department does not have the funds to maintain existing parks. Why is Commissioner Heard the only one concerned about such foolish expenditure?

GOING GREEN WHILE SAVING MONEY: Presentation by a Trane Corp. representative to replace aging air conditioning with new technology worth $4.8 million was well received by Commission. Company will guarantee $343,557 in annual energy savings and $187,864 in operational savings. The savings will pay off a bank loan over 16 years without a tax increase or using capital funds. Good deal. This sustainable energy conservation will also reduce our carbon footprint.

TOP PROJECT PRIORITIES FOR FED FUNDS: Federal stimulus funds in the multi-hundred million dollar range may become available for the three top priority county projects. They are the C-44 project, the Indian Street bridge, and the Lake O Hoover Dike. If we can get them – a big if – it will have major favorable impact on our economy and environment.

Personal reflections at year’s end

So many people have suffered this year – job loss, business failure, home foreclosure, investment loss – that it would be glib simply to sign off with just a traditional Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, or Joyous Holiday. Of course I wish that for everyone, but I want to direct my year end reflections especially to those who are hurting.

We Americans are resilient and caring, among the many fine qualities that have made our nation great. This may be small solace when we are burdened with financial worry. So I’d like to pass along the mantra that has helped me through some difficult times during my long life: “This, too, shall pass.”

Courage. There will be better days ahead.

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For a free subscription to The Martin County Defender, send request with “Subscribe” in the subject line to:mcdefender@gmail.com

Comments and requests to unsubscribe may be sent to this same address.

Al

Al Forman, Editor                                  12/18/08

The Martin County

  Defender

The e-newsletter for aware citizens – No. 82

Facing the budget crunch

Budget shortfalls are hitting cities, counties and states across the country.  Florida’s shortfall of $5.1 billion, third largest in the nation, is likely to mean that the state will try to offload more financial obligations on Martin and other counties. If we do not take early action, we could end up like Philadelphia (11 of 54 libraries closed) or Atlanta (salaries of 4,600 employees cut). 

One of our long time exasperations with the county’s wasteful spending relates to consultants. At the Dec. 2 Commission meeting, Commissioner Sarah Heard questioned why we are paying consultants who currently work on projects which will not be built for lack of funding. We are told staff is working on a plan to solve that problem, but why was there not such a plan in place six months or a year ago when the crunch was looming. 

There is a philosophical issue on what to do with new income that becomes available. This past week the Commission decided, 4-to-1 with Valliere dissenting, that an estimated $250,000 to be gained from allowing cellphone towers in our parks would go into the Parks Department fund so parks can be kept clean,  toilets open, and equipment maintained properly. County Administrator Duncan Ballantyne wanted the money to go into the General Fund to avoid a possible bad precedent for other departments. Of course, money sort of vanishes in a General Fund. Commission’s political focus rules when dealing with a highly visible quality of life issue.

Foreclosure help is on the way 

There are some 1,400 Martin County properties currently in foreclosure, of which about 200 have reached final judgment. This is more than ten times the normal rate. Further, there are 2,400 properties, with such characteristics as sub-prime mortgages and no owner equity, that are in danger of foreclosure. 

To deal with the problem, the county has set up a Foreclosure Task Force led by Community Redevelopment Director Jeff Oris. He outlined the four-phase plan developed by the task force as follows: 

-          Prevent foreclosures where possible

-          Assist residents forced into foreclosure

-          Preserve neighborhoods affected by abandoned houses

-          Seek state funding for neighborhood stabilization 

About $3 million in federal/state funds may be available for this purpose in Martin County, but it is uncertain whether we can get it. Oris will be working to involve a wide range of leaders and organizations to achieve task force goals. Efforts should focus on homesteaders and family businesses, rather than speculators. We hope those asked to participate will step forward to help. 

Until Martin’s effort becomes fully operational, residents needing advice about preventing foreclosure can obtain useful information online at www.hopenow.com, or phone 1-888-995-4673. The Federal Office of Housing and Urban Development’s Consumer Counseling Service at 1-800-741-7040 may also be able to help. 

There are plenty of mortgage counseling scams around. You can check with the Florida Attorney General’ Consumer Hotline at 1-866-966-7226.

School Board may be losing public support 

Some School Board actions this year are causing people to question the wisdom and propriety of its decisions. First is the issue of openness. All these years the Board failed to provide MCTV coverage of its meetings. Now we will have it thanks to the determination and some dollars from a few businessmen. Separately, when it was reported that the former superintendent was skirting the public records law by having e-mails sent to her secretary, the Board did nothing. 

Second, in what appeared to be a vindictive act aimed at incoming Superintendent Nancy Kline, the Board broke precedent by signing a three-year contract with the assistant superintendent instead of the usual one-year. Was that payback for Kline’s frequent dissents when she was on the Board? 

Third, the Board cuts public input by reducing speaking time from five to three minutes. That partly silences the very people who are the most devoted and willing to speak up about education issues. The excuse that five minute speeches take up too much time is unconvincing. They could meet a second time during the month. Or they could bunch all those nice but time-consuming ceremonial presentations into one Saturday. 

Ms. Kline is willing and able to shake up some school matters that need to be changed, especially with regard to transparency, costs and bringing others into the education picture. Our children would benefit by the School Board being more supportive of the newly elected superintendent. 

Correction of EAR schedule 

In DEFENDER No. 81, we noted the general schedule of EAR (Evaluation and Appraisal Report) hearings over the next 15 months. Through a miscommunication, we erroneously stated that there would be public workshops on the amendments to the Comp Plan in January 2009 at dates and times to be announced. In fact, Growth Management staff is still working on a schedule, due for completion next month, for LPA (Local Planning Agency) public hearings. County staff expects to start taking amendments to the LPA in January, and to begin advertising workshops in January. 

EAR-LPA FOLLOW-UP

At the Dec. 4, 2008 LPA meeting, Martin’s Growth Management staff presented a well conceived approach to developing the EAR document.  There was particular focus on Land use (Chapter 4), Coastal (Chapter 8), and Conservation (Chapter (9). Even prior to public hearings on these three elements, citizens can not only make general comments, but they can present detailed proposed drafts of amendments for consideration. One leading developer said he plans to do so. Submissions and comments should be sent to Growth Management Director Nicki vanVonno: nikkiv@martin.fl.us . Public comments may be sent simultaneously to LPA’s Administrative Specialist Joan Seaman at jseaman@martin.fl.us. 

As part of making Comp Plan provisions consistent and compatible with one another, and correcting scrivener errors, Growth Management plans to have it reviewed for understandable, plain language. Good idea, but here is where we run into an uh-oh. They plan to hire still another consultant to act as an editor to achieve clarity. Bad idea in these financially difficult times. It’s falling back on no longer affordable old habits: extra work – hire a consultant. If there aren’t a couple of county employees literate enough to edit for language clarity, then bring in some volunteers. There are plenty of competent residents in the county who would be willing do that – free!

Which commissioners are doing a second-rate job in posting public record e-mails? 

Any e-mail sent to a commissioner at the county facility becomes a public record – including those with the boiler plate statement that the e-mail is a privileged private communication. To facilitate open and transparent government, the county provides website space for commissioners to post - in a timely fashion - the e-mails they received. 

Some commissioners do an excellent job, keeping residents up to date. They include Commissioners Hayes and Heard. Ciampi is only one day late. However, two commissioners are laggards in posting e-mails: As of Dec. 4, Commissioner Valliere is almost three weeks behind, and Commissioner Smith is over two weeks late, which is not good constituent service. Get crackin’ guys! 

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For a free subscription to The Martin County Defender, send request with “Subscribe” in the subject line to: mcdefender@gmail.com 

Comments and requests to unsubscribe may be sent to this same address.

Al

Al Forman, Editor                                  12/6/08 

The Martin County

  Defender

The e-newsletter for aware citizens – No. 76

Local Democrat activists want Ramos as  candidate instead of Mahoney

As Martin County Democratic party leaders sit frozen, deer-in-the-headlights style, local rank-and-file members have begun pushing for disgraced Congressman Tim Mahoney to step aside. They want the Florida Democratic Party to name Bill Ramos as candidate in Mahoney’s place.

It’s too late to change the printed ballots, but if a switch were made, votes cast for Mahoney could be credited to Ramos or another replacement candidate. Ramos  recently lost the state rep primary because of huge Palm Beach contributions and St. Lucie votes garnered by his opponent. However, Ramos did win the vote in Martin County, where he lives and works.

Representative of the effort to replace Mahoney is the following e-mail being sent by Democratic activists to Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman (email@fladems.com):

Please remove Tim Mahoney from the ballot and designate Bill Ramos to run in his place.  We will work very hard in District 16 to let the voters know that a vote for Mahoney on the ballot is REALLY a vote for Bill Ramos, an intelligent, dedicated, well-known, honest, moral politician. We do not want Mr. Mahoney’s recent record to prevent our local Democratic candidates from winning their elections in Martin County.

Mahoney should recognize that he is a politically walking deadman, same as Foley was two years ago. He should step aside, but so far he’s hanging tough, It’s a good day for Republican Tom Rooney.

WE’RE GETTING (UNWANTED) NATIONAL ATTENTION

The sight of another elected official dragooning his wife to sit - Spitzer-like -  in pitiful silence as her husband tries to weasel word excuses, combined with the coincidence of Mahoney’s sex scandal immediately following one by former Congressman Mark Foley, seems to be too delicious for the national media to ignore.

In commenting on the situation in Florida’s 16^th Congressional District, Fox’s Greta Van Susteren wryly observed: “It must be something in the water down there.” Over at NBC, Jay Leno heaped some scathing humor on Mahoney.

Hearings on legality of two pro-sprawl amendments to the Comp Plan

The majority on the County Commission passed two amendments to the Comprehensive Plan that were favored by developer interests. One is the so-called Valliere Rural Cluster Amendment that allows cluster housing development in agricultural areas. The other is an amendment allowing the extension of public utilities outside the primary Urban Services Boundary. Both undermine the protections of the Comp Plan, and are likely to foster the kind of sprawl that has been so harmful to other counties.

The Martin County Conservation Alliance and the 1000 Friends of Florida have filed legal challenges to the two amendments noted. According to the Conservation Alliance, hearings will be held next month. The first, on Nov. 17, 2008, will be held in the workshop meeting room, fourth floor of the County Administration Building, at 1:00 pm. The next two hearings will be in the Armstrong Room of the Blake Library on Nov. 18 & 19. The final two are scheduled back at the workshop meeting room on Nov. 20 & 21. Meetings are open to the public.

The hearings could become moot if the commission candidates supported by the DEFENDER are elected on Nov. 4 because they are committed to rescinding the Valliere Amendment, and may also do so for the utility extension amendment. The preferred quality-of-life candidates are: Joan Wilcox (District 1), Martha Bennett (District 3), and John Patteson (District 5).

Recapturing the Commission by electing these three best commission candidates is achievable if slow growth advocates don’t split the vote.

•••NO MORE 2004•••

Florida Hometown Democracy Amendment ready for 2010 ballot

Despite the incompetence or obstruction of election officials in other counties, the not-me irresponsibility of the Florida Secretary of State, and unsavory tactics by the state’s developer growth machine, the petition drive for the Florida Hometown Democracy (FHD) Amendment has gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot in 2010.

To get on the ballot, the petition drive requires 611,009 verified signatures statewide. FHD submitted some 850,000. Furthermore, the law requires that the petition include 8% of registered voters voting in the last presidential election in at least 13 of the state’s 25 congressional districts. Over 611,009 signatures have already been verified. Small additions may be needed, depending on the upcoming Nov. 4 election.

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  Al Forman
  mc_defender@fastmail.net