The Martin County

  Defender

The e-newsletter for aware citizens – No. 83

TIMING IS EVERYTHING

The home resale price roller coaster

The home sales price bubble inflated over time; then it deflated dramatically, but not instantly. The cycle took several years. Unfortunately, the supposed experts – bankers, developers, real estate brokers and political officials – either did not track the handwriting on the wall for the resale market or did not understand it. They may have been deluding themselves, too busy living on unrealistic expectations of price appreciation, raking in dollars and votes. And buyers seemed blindly optimistic that prices would keep rising forever, their faith in authority convincing them to forget caveat emptor.

To learn the timeline of the rise and fall of home prices in Martin County, we examined a substantial segment of house resales during the last months of 2008. Both higher and lower priced homes were included, though most were mid-range. We broke down 168 randomly selected resales by year of original acquisition. Then we analyzed the average percent increase or decrease of the price when the same houses were resold recently.

The general conclusion of this DEFENDER study is interesting in the same sense that lottery winners and train wrecks are. On average, the overwhelming majority of those who bought a house prior to 2003 and resold it in 2008 made a profit – usually a large profit. Almost all who originally bought in 2004 or later and subsequently resold in 2008 lost money – often a great deal of money. 2003 was the tipping point year.

For houses purchased prior to 2000, resale prices in 2008 were up 125%.

For houses purchased in 2000, resale prices in 2008 were up 52%.

For houses purchased in 2001, resale prices in 2008 were up 39%.

For houses purchased in 2002, resale prices in 2008 were up 30%.

For houses purchased in 2003, resale prices in 2008 were down 1%.

For houses purchased in 2004, resale prices in 2008 were down 22%.

For houses purchased in 2005, resale prices in 2008 were down 31%.

For houses purchased in 2006, resale prices in 2008 were down 40%.

For houses purchased in 2007, resale prices in 2008 were down 37%.

These specific percentages and annual pattern of dramatic gains and losses have not been previously recognized, at least not publicly.

In retrospect, it is apparent that although Florida’s overall economy in 2005 was at a peak (gross domestic product was highest of all states), the growth engine was already starting to sputter. House-of-cards prosperity masked the impending collapse. Florida now ranks 47^th in GDP.

LOOKING AHEAD

State economists have predicted that the current recession will last through 2009, with slow growth starting in 2010. This suggests that we are probably near the bottom now, but it is all speculative as to when the cyclic upturn will kick in. Martin County has had moderate long-term population and development growth. This should make us less vulnerable than some boomtown counties. However, we are not insulated from the current state and local pattern of no population growth, budget shortfalls, rising unemployment, and foreclosures.

Based on all of the above, what guideline should today’s prospective home buyers and sellers consider? There are what appear to be great home bargains for financially solid potential buyers willing to shop hard. However, for new buyers who do not expect to keep their homes more than two or three years, there still is some risk of further loss in market value. For those who expect to keep their homes for four or more years, the likelihood is that economic recovery will once again put such purchases on the path of appreciation. Houses may then become satisfactory investments, but probably less so than in the past decade.

If we are able to learn from experience, perhaps the next cycle will still perform like a roller coaster - but with a less frightening ride.

Highlights of 12/16/08 Commission meeting

LOOK FOR HIGHER TAXES IN 2009: County staff expects property assessments to drop more than 9% in 2009, necessitating a tax rate increase to make up for the reduced ad valorem tax collections.

A ROAD JOB WELL DONE: The plan to solve the terrible traffic situation at Monterey & Kanner by adding lanes (first reported on 6/19/08 in DEFENDER No. 59) has been completed on time and under budget. It’s a major safety and convenience improvement. Kudos to county staff.

WASTING OUR TAX MONEY: County continues to spend money to develop a new park, when the Parks & Rec Department does not have the funds to maintain existing parks. Why is Commissioner Heard the only one concerned about such foolish expenditure?

GOING GREEN WHILE SAVING MONEY: Presentation by a Trane Corp. representative to replace aging air conditioning with new technology worth $4.8 million was well received by Commission. Company will guarantee $343,557 in annual energy savings and $187,864 in operational savings. The savings will pay off a bank loan over 16 years without a tax increase or using capital funds. Good deal. This sustainable energy conservation will also reduce our carbon footprint.

TOP PROJECT PRIORITIES FOR FED FUNDS: Federal stimulus funds in the multi-hundred million dollar range may become available for the three top priority county projects. They are the C-44 project, the Indian Street bridge, and the Lake O Hoover Dike. If we can get them – a big if – it will have major favorable impact on our economy and environment.

Personal reflections at year’s end

So many people have suffered this year – job loss, business failure, home foreclosure, investment loss – that it would be glib simply to sign off with just a traditional Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, or Joyous Holiday. Of course I wish that for everyone, but I want to direct my year end reflections especially to those who are hurting.

We Americans are resilient and caring, among the many fine qualities that have made our nation great. This may be small solace when we are burdened with financial worry. So I’d like to pass along the mantra that has helped me through some difficult times during my long life: “This, too, shall pass.”

Courage. There will be better days ahead.

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For a free subscription to The Martin County Defender, send request with “Subscribe” in the subject line to:mcdefender@gmail.com

Comments and requests to unsubscribe may be sent to this same address.

Al

Al Forman, Editor                                  12/18/08

  Defender

The e-newsletter for aware citizens – No. 75

A prediction contest for you to become

2008 Political Seer of the Year 

The DEFENDER  is sponsoring a contest to find the Martin citizens able to predict who will be victorious – and by how much - in the three 2008 County Commission   elections. In addition to being awarded a plaque commemorating their clairvoyant skills, and gaining public recognition, top contest winners will receive the following prizes: 

First Prize: $75 Cash

Second Prize: $25 gift certificate to Manero’s Restaurant, Palm City

Third Prize: $20 gift certificate to Carrabbas Italian Grill, Stuart 

It’s easy to enter. Here is all you need to do: 

1 – Click on REPLY. 

2 - Fill in your name, and mark “X” next to “I have voted or will vote….”  (   ) 

3 – Next to one candidate in each District, Mark “X” for the one you think, not hope, will win. Then fill in the percent of votes for that District which you guess your chosen candidate will receive. Example: 

Candidate John Doe ( X ) – percent of District vote (  56% ) 

4 – Click on SEND. 

Type in  →

                           Last Name,     First Name

“I have voted or will vote in the 2008 election”  - Mark here → (     ) 

Candidates listed alphabetically by district 

DISTRICT 1 (Choose one) 

Tom Fullman (    ) – percent of District vote (    %)

Doug Smith (    ) – percent of District vote (    %)

Joan Wilcox (    ) – percent of District vote (    %) 

DISTRICT 3 (Choose one) 

Martha Bennett (    ) – percent of District vote (    %)

Patrick Hayes (    ) – percent of District vote (    %) 

DISTRICT 5 (Choose one) 

Ed Ciampi (    ) – percent of District vote (    %)

Linda Green (    ) – percent of District vote (    %)

John Patteson (    ) – percent of District vote (    %) 

Winners will be chosen based on predicting all three successful candidates correctly. The ranking of the top contest winners will depend on who guesses most closely the percent of total votes for that District that were cast for the victor. 

Only one entry allowed per individual or e-mail address. Contest open only to voters registered in Martin County. Deadline is Nov. 2, 2008 

The “2008 Political Seer of the Year” contest is part of the DEFENDER’S effort to encourage citizens to vote, and to enjoy the process. 

NOTE: Early voting starts Oct. 20. Questions? Call Election Center: 772-288-5637.

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For a free subscription to The Martin County Defender, send request with “Subscribe” in the subject line to: mcdefender@gmail.com

Comments and requests to unsubscribe may be sent to this same address.

Al

Al Forman, Editor                                  10/15/08

The Martin County Defender is published and Copyright 2008 by WordsmithAmerica,

All previous issues of the Defender are archived at our website:

www.MartinCountyDefender.com

--
  Al Forman
  mc_defender@fastmail.net

The (failed) 2007 secret meetings to unify the slow-growth candidate vote

About a year ago, several of us were concerned that  slow-growth advocates needed to unite behind a single Commission candidate in each district if we wanted to prevent a repeat of the 2004 election, which put a pro-developer majority on the Commission.

It was like pulling teeth, but with help I convened a meeting of nine leading, high profile slow-growth advocates. Two others could not attend. No potential candidates were invited. All of us knew each other, and the meeting was cordial, purposeful and seemingly productive.  We discussed prospective candidates, evaluated the qualities that would make an excellent commissioner, and considered their potential for winning the 2008 election.

We came to the conclusion, by informal consensus, that the three best prospects were Henry Copeland (District 1), Martha Bennett (District 3), and Ian Pollack (District 5).  We would leave it to a follow-up meeting to explore what could be done to support the favored candidates.

While the meeting was in progress, one of the attendees stood up and said he was leaving. He insisted without saying why that his favorite, Fullman, was a better choice than Copeland. Then he went on a blustering rant, saying there were many bad things about Copeland that we did not know. We were all taken aback. I challenged him to be specific, and to explain a few of those supposed bad things. Instead of an explanation, he stalked out of the room. Uh oh! So much for unity. We never held the follow-up meeting.

Independently at about the same time, Lloyd Brumfield, who operates an excellent filtered news service, called a broader meeting with the same objective as mine. Discussion by a few dozen attendees was lively, but rambling and contradictory. We would work out differences at a scheduled follow-up meeting. That meeting was subsequently canceled.

We now know from the Republican primary results what the lack of solidarity brought about. In District 5, the three-way slow-growth split gave victory by plurality – not majority - to Ciampi over Pollack. That’s how DiTerlizzi won the district four years earlier. In the District 1 Republican primary, Smith barely nosed out Copeland, not by split vote, but by some support splitting away to favor new Democrat Fullman.

I hate to admit it, but Stuart News columnist Rich Campbell (who is wrong on numerous matters, and probably did not know about the meetings) has been right – so far – in his New Year prediction, “What’s ahead for us in 2008?”  He said: “Martin County’s slow-growth faction will divide and conquer itself during the elections just as it did in 2004. Too many slow-growth candidates will split the vote.” Please join me in working to prove Campbell is not such a great prognosticator.

THE BATTLE IS NOT OVER! Be inspired by Churchill’s uncounquerable determination and bold exhortation: “Never, never, never give up.” THE GOOD GUYS CAN STILL WIN BY UNITING!

Look at the candidates in District 5

Ed Ciampi, who won the four-way Republican primary with the unified. generous financial backing of developer-business and landowner interests, is an admirer of Big Sugar, and wannabe clone of incumbent DiTerlizzi. He’s bad news for the county.

Linda Green, the unopposed Democrat, was protégé of sorts under Mary Dawson, co-author of the Valliere Rural Cluster Amendment. However, Green has struck out independently, opposing this bad law. Green is a good candidate – but lacks experience, and has not been in the forefront of slow-growth battles.

John Patteson, a long time registered Republican running as No Party Affiliation (NPA), is the strongest, most experienced and best informed candidate of the three. It’s not just the positions he takes. It’s his irrepressible zest in standing up before the Commission for environmental and slow-growth issues that wins my support.

I”LL VOTE FOR JOHN PATTESON BECAUSE I KNOW HE WILL FIGHT FOR A BETTER QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALL OF US!

Lesley Blackner Receives “2008 Woman of the Year Award” from Defender  

Leslie Blackner, co-author of the Florida Hometown Democracy Amendment, received the “2008 Woman of the year Award from the Martin County DEFENDER, an e-newsletter edited by Palm City resident Al Forman. The presentation was made at the County Commission chambers, Fast-growth commissioners had opposed the Amendment.

As stated on the presentation plaque, the award was given to Ms. Blackner “For her indomitable spirit and outstanding courage in the battle to place on the ballot the Florida Hometown Democracy Amendment that will grant the people the right to vote on land use changes that change the face of their community forever. “

Upon receiving the award, Ms. Blackner said:

“Martin County is perhaps the best place left on the east coast of Florida. It’s a reminder of just how gorgeous and unique the entire state of Florida used to be.  Why is Martin so different from Palm Beach County or St. Lucie—ruined by developers gone wild?  Citizen leadership is the reason.  Martin has been blessed over the past decades with dedicated citizens who don’t want to see Martin paved with wall-to-wall sprawl.  For years now, Martin’s citizen leadership has fought the good fight to make sure it isn’t swallowed up in concrete. 

“Not surprisingly, Martin is held up as a model of “responsible growth management” throughout Florida.  Martin was lucky for many years.  But luck can change.  And knowing that the difference between responsible development and being paved over often boils down to just one vote on the county commission means that our current land use system vests way too much power in the hands of commissioners.  That’s why developers will say and do just about anything to retain power over commissions.  The growth machine will tell you anything to maintain power.  Look at the campaign contributions and see who donates the most to local races.  Look (if you can) and see who’s sending out sneaky ads. 

“The truth is that land use is politics.  The law rather naively assumes that when a commission approves a requested land use change, the change is granted because it is in the public interest.  The hard truth is that the public interest is too often defined as keeping politically greased developers happy, and everything else is irrelevant.  In fact, the current real estate debacle can be laid directly at the feet of Florida’s commissions who hardly ever say “no” and let developers go wild, overbuild on speculation and crash the entire US economy.

“With the advent of Florida Hometown Democracy citizens will have some peace of mind knowing that changes to their local growth plans truly reflect the broad public interest because voters themselves will have the final say over whether or not they want the change.  We wish we had qualified for the 2008 ballot but the growth machine, to their credit, did a good job of seeing that it did not happen.  Nonetheless, we are just about qualified for 2010 and all our opponents can do is defeat us at the polls.  We have the next two years to win the hearts and minds of Floridians about this important reform.  You can do your part by connecting it to ongoing growth fights here in Martin.  When you hear about a proposed growth plan change think how Hometown Democracy would impact the proposal.  Talk to everyone about this hope for the future.  Wouldn’t you like to have a voice on whether or not Martin is paved or saved?” Ms. Blackner concluded.

Why the Commission must be reformed

The Commission majority has been passing laws and land use changes that benefit special financial interests and burden residents. These changes will become irreversible if this same majority – even with different faces – continues in power for the next four years.

A survey of 1,500 Martin citizens, conducted by our Martin County Consensus and published in the April 24, 2008 Stuart News, found that 78.2% of residents, believed that the County Commission was doing a Poor or Very Poor job.

Above and beyond the national economic downturn, based on county performance (library hours, traffic, parks, neighborhood encroachment, wasteful expenses, taxes, Comp Plan erosion, etc.) each of us should ask ourselves:

IS MY FAMILY BETTER OFF AS A MARTIN RESIDENT THAN WE WERE FOUR YEARS AGO? If not, it makes sense to change the status quo.

If you like Martin County the way it has been, and want to preserve those wonderful qualities, the only solution is to unite behind the credible candidates who will reform the Commission.

The candidates who will bring about needed change are:

* Joan Wilcox, District 1, long time Republican running NPA

* Martha Bennett, District 3, Democrat

* John Patteson, District 5, long time Republican running NPA

WISHFUL THOUGHT FOR TODAY: In these days of reduced public services without tax reduction, wouldn’t it be nice for the county to have on hand an extra $573,000 – the amount that was wasted by the Commission majority on the Glatting-Jackson and Urbanomics consultant reports?

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For a free subscription to The Martin County Defender, send request with “Subscribe” in the subject line to: mcdefender@gmail.com

Comments and requests to unsubscribe may be sent to this same address.

Al

Al Forman, Editor                                  9/20/08

The Martin County Defender is published and Copyright 2008 by WordsmithAmerica,

. All rights reserved. No part of this issue may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording for public or private use, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. NOTICE:  All correspondence not bearing legal copyright notice which is sent to the Defender or its editor is subject to being edited and published.

All previous issues of the Defender are archived at our website:

www.MartinCountyDefender.com

 What’s happening in Stuart? Check out the following website:

www.SailfishCity.com

–

  Al Forman
  mc_defender@fastmail.net